Standing Still: Will Madison Will Be Smaller by 2050?

Jefferson County Population Trends

Everyone knows Madison is historic, but much debate remains about its future.

That’s what makes the population projections from Indiana University so important. Here are the latest numbers from their website looking at the trends for population growth or decline for Jefferson County, Indiana.

Jefferson County Goes Grey

The picture is not encouraging. The aging population will gray rapidly, hitting a median age of 41.7 by 2025. That number will come back down over time, but not quick enough to grow the total population. The functional group “Seniors 65+” will peek around 7,528 in 2030. That’s 58.7% higher than the same group in 2010 at 4,742.

2050: Total Population Slightly Down

The net result of these demographics is a “natural decrease” in total Jefferson County population. The projected number by 2050 is 31,914 which is slightly down from the estimated 2011 estimate of 32,249.

What’s Past is Prologue

Our historical city should understand this better than most. When you consider the historical census numbers, it’s hard to imagine anything else. Jefferson County first approached current levels in 1870 when the census counted 29,741. That was before a long dip that saw population drop to 19,182 by 1930. The recovery came slowly, but Jefferson County was back to 30,419 by 1980. Since then, our community has been stable but experienced only a small net gain. The city of Madison has yet to exceed the 1970 population high of 13,081.

What Do You Think?

We would love to hear your thoughts on these statics. Click here to leave a comment and join the conversation. How do you think these trends can be changed? Should be doing more to attract in-migration to our community?

Jefferson County Estimated Population Trends

Year Total Preschool
0-4
School Age
5-19
College Age
20-24
Young Adult
25-44
Older Adult
45-64
Seniors
65+
2010 32,428 1,869 6,538 2,130 7,940 9,209 4,742
2015 32,657 1,915 6,301 2,207 7,650 9,127 5,457
2020 32,811 1,893 6,303 2,116 7,544 8,847 6,108
2025 32,880 1,872 6,298 2,149 7,441 8,177 6,943
2030 32,782 1,839 6,298 2,143 7,319 7,655 7,528
2035 32,566 1,825 6,221 2,205 7,353 7,375 7,587
2040 32,329 1,837 6,149 2,205 7,366 7,291 7,481
2045 32,095 1,848 6,114 2,198 7,474 7,186 7,275
2050 31,914 1,842 6,127 2,174 7,529 7,081 7,161

 

Median Age for Jefferson County Indiana

Year Median Age
2010 39.7
2015 40.7
2020 41.3
2025 41.7
2030 41.7
2035 41.6
2040 41.2
2045 40.8
2050 40.4

Source:  STATS Indiana, using data from the  Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business.

Notes: 2010 data are census counts from the U.S. Census Bureau. Produced on 6/6/2012 5:47:18 PM